The possibility of former U.S. President Donald Trump returning to office in 2025 has sparked widespread discussions about the future of global politics, particularly in relation to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. One of the key questions is whether Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy should work with Trump if he is re-elected. Given Trump’s historical stance on foreign policy, U.S.-Ukraine relations, and the broader geopolitical landscape, this question is crucial for Ukraine’s strategic interests.
Trump’s Past Relations with Ukraine
During his presidency (2017-2021), Donald Trump’s relationship with Ukraine was complex. While his administration provided military aid, including Javelin anti-tank missiles, Trump’s approach to Ukraine was often seen as transactional. The most notable controversy involved a phone call between Trump and Zelenskyy in 2019, which led to Trump’s first impeachment. The call revolved around Trump allegedly pressuring Zelenskyy to investigate Hunter Biden, the son of Joe Biden, in exchange for military assistance. This event strained U.S.-Ukraine relations and left a lasting impact on their diplomatic engagements.
Trump’s Foreign Policy Stance on Ukraine
Unlike the Biden administration, which has been steadfast in supporting Ukraine against Russia’s invasion, Trump has expressed skepticism about the level of U.S. involvement. He has repeatedly claimed that if he were president, he would negotiate an end to the war within 24 hours. However, critics argue that Trump’s close ties with Russian President Vladimir Putin could result in compromises unfavorable to Ukraine, such as territorial concessions.
Trump’s ‘America First’ policy suggests that he may prioritize reducing U.S. financial and military support for Ukraine. If re-elected, his administration might push for a peace deal that could limit Ukraine’s ambitions to reclaim occupied territories, potentially leading to friction between Trump and Zelenskyy.
Challenges and Opportunities for Zelenskyy
For Zelenskyy, the return of Trump presents both challenges and opportunities. Here’s how:
Challenges:
- Potential Reduction in Aid: Trump has criticized the large-scale U.S. financial support to Ukraine. If elected, he might cut back on aid, forcing Zelenskyy to seek alternative sources of support.
- Pressure for Concessions: Trump’s willingness to negotiate with Russia could put Ukraine in a difficult position, possibly forcing it to make territorial compromises.
- Diplomatic Tensions: Given their past friction, Zelenskyy may face difficulties in building a trusting relationship with Trump.
Opportunities:
- Negotiation Leverage: If Trump aims to quickly resolve the conflict, Zelenskyy could use this to negotiate favorable terms while securing long-term U.S. commitments.
- Alternative Support Strategies: A shift in U.S. policy might push Ukraine to strengthen its alliances with European nations, NATO, and non-traditional partners.
- Reset in Relations: A new Trump administration could provide an opportunity to reset U.S.-Ukraine relations, with both sides learning from past experiences.
Should Zelenskyy Work with Trump?
Given Ukraine’s reliance on U.S. support, Zelenskyy would have little choice but to work with Trump if he wins re-election. However, the approach should be strategic and pragmatic. Zelenskyy must navigate Trump’s unpredictable diplomacy while ensuring that Ukraine’s core interests—territorial integrity, security, and sovereignty—are not compromised.
To achieve this, Zelenskyy should:
- Engage in Early Diplomacy: Building communication channels with Trump’s team before the election could help prepare for potential policy shifts.
- Diversify Alliances: Strengthening ties with European nations, NATO, and other global powers will ensure that Ukraine is not overly dependent on U.S. aid.
- Seek Bipartisan U.S. Support: Engaging with both Republican and Democratic leaders in Congress can help maintain consistent aid to Ukraine.
Conclusion
While Zelenskyy may have concerns about working with Trump, maintaining diplomatic relations with the U.S. remains essential for Ukraine’s survival and sovereignty. If Trump returns to power, Zelenskyy must adapt to a new political landscape while safeguarding Ukraine’s interests. By leveraging diplomatic strategies and international alliances, he can work with a Trump administration without compromising Ukraine’s long-term security and independence.
